Prediction: General Assembly Elections*

May 25, 2023

Election Day is five months out; early voting begins a little more than three months away. Primary Day isn't for another week and a half. Still, yours truly is ready to make my first asterisk-heavy prediction on who will win the General Assembly in November. The prediction is based on assumptions driven by current fact. Should those facts change, the assumptions and the prediction change. Hence the asterisk(s). The prediction itself comes from my belief that the assumptions will hold up.

I begin with what happened in 2021 (Republican +7 HOD Seats, flipped chamber), and examine the differences from then to now that would impact the 2023 result. For the RPV, two factors argue for a change in their favor.

First, Glenn Youngkin has gone from largely unknown candidate to minimally successful governor. That change is impactful: no incumbent governor of Virginia has seen their party suffer a genuine mid-term loss in twenty years – and even that – Mark Warner losing a State Senate seat – came as he picked up a few Delegates in 2003. To find a governing party suffering serious losses in a Virginia mid-term, you have to go back to 1991.

To some extent, many of Youngkin's predecessors had the advantage of a politically unpopular foil in the White House. That said, so does Youngkin (538), which is the second factor in the GOP's favor.

Assuming Youngkin can maintain his approval rating about 50% (probably) and keep his party together (not so likely, see below), he would expect to keep the House of Delegates under GOP control at least.

Unfortunately for Youngkin and the RPV, the national environment's impact goes beyond the resident of the White House. While Biden is certainly unpopular, he's no more unpopular than he was in November 2021, with the stench of the Afghanistan collapse still very recent. That's been mitigated by the relative success of keeping Ukraine from being conquered by Russia (dividing the GOP on the issue in the process). Domestically, Biden's latest accomplishment is the bipartisan debt-ceiling/budget deal. For all its faults – and there are many – it averted default and also left his own party more united than the GOP. Youngkin didn't have a divided party on his hands in 2021; he does now.

Moreover, Virginia voters made their distaste for Biden's predecessor abundantly clear from 2017 through 2020. In 2021, Donald Trump was largely viewed as a spent force, fading from the spotlight and mentioned more by angry Democrats than by thankful Republicans. Today, he is the leading candidate for the GOP presidential nomination (by far), even as he comes under indictment for his treatment of government documents. The relaxation anti-Trump voters may have felt in 2021 is gone.

Unfortunately for Republicans, there is no evidence that Trump can fuel the voter turnout to counter his critics unless he himself is on the ballot – which will not be the case in 2023.

As for independent voters, we’re talking about a man who is charged with illegally taking and refusing to give back documents vital to national defense – in a state with one of the highest share of military personnel in the country (Governing). If Youngkin is lucky, Trump will only be in the news on this once or twice a week due to pre-trial motions and appeals of same. If the case goes to trial in the fall, the GOP message, whatever it may be, is done for.

The RPV's final problem will likely be Trump himself. Why do I say that? Because I saw this in Axios (italics added).

What we’re hearing: Some powerful GOP donors, who won't support Trump but are beginning to be concerned about DeSantis, are encouraging Youngkin to jump into the 2024 field.

Youngkin faces high-stakes state legislative races in November. So an announcement about a presidential race is likely to wait until right after that, Republican sources said.

If I saw it, I’m sure two prominent Virginians in the Trump and DeSantis campaigns (LaCivita for Trump; Cuccinelli for DeSantis) saw it, too. Depending upon where the field is come autumn, at least one of these two candidates will want Youngkin to stay out. If all they have to do is stop a few seats from flipping in the Commonwealth, it’ll be worth it to them.

To be clear, we won't see this openly (unless Trump decides to openly criticize Youngkin and the RPV in a preemptive strike). More likely it will be quiet whispers in donors’ ears, unattributed comments designed to depress GOP turnout, etc. This, combined with the national issue set I mentioned above, will keep Youngkin from holding his fellow Republicans together.

* – Subject to change if the facts underlying current assumptions change.

If they don't though, here's how I see it.

State Senate: Democrats 23 (+/-1), Republicans 17 (+/-1), Range: D+2 to R+1, Democrats hold majority

House of Delegates: Democrats 53 (+/-2), Republicans 47 (+/-2), Range: D+3 to D+5, Democrats win majority

Flag planted … but could be moved.

D.J. McGuire is Financial Editor for Bearing Drift.